"Exploring the Impact of 'Snapback' on Iran's Political Landscape"
The European foreign ministers of Germany, France, and the UK have taken a significant step in the ongoing dispute over Iran's nuclear program. They have triggered a mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, a move that could potentially reinstate the general arms embargo and penalties against individuals and organizations, among other sanctions.
This decision comes after the foreign ministers threatened such a step if no diplomatic solution was found by the end of August. The snapback mechanism, established in a UN resolution in 2015, allows for the reimposition of sanctions on Iran without practical opportunity for countries like Russia or China to block it.
However, Russia and China, as UN Security Council members with veto power, are likely to oppose and undermine the re-imposition of old UN sanctions on Iran. They may continue economic and military cooperation, such as buying Iranian oil and engaging in arms trade, despite attempts by European countries to trigger the snapback mechanism.
The IAEA Director General, Rafael Grossi, has stated that Iran is the only country without nuclear weapons that is producing nearly weapons-grade material. The agency also criticized unanswered questions from its nuclear inspectors. Before the Israeli war against Iran, which began on June 13 and lasted twelve days, Iran had more than 400 kilograms of uranium with a purity of 60 percent.
The sanctions have plunged Iran, a country with nearly 90 million inhabitants, into a severe economic crisis, particularly affecting the poor population. Iran has already expanded its economic and military relations with Russia and China due to these international sanctions.
Tehran has criticized the snapback mechanism as illegitimate, given that the Vienna nuclear deal is no longer being implemented in practice. Experts believe the sanctions could further isolate Iran internationally. However, the economic impact on Iran from the reinstated UN sanctions is likely to be limited due to the country already being under a multitude of far-reaching and harmful US secondary sanctions.
The dispute over Iran's nuclear program continues, with both sides maintaining their positions. The next 30 days will be crucial as the E3 or the Security Council can stop or delay the snapback if Iran complies within this period. If a decision to continue sanctions relief is not reached, the previous UN sanctions from 2006 to 2010 will be reinstated without further consultation.
Meanwhile, Beijing is considered the main buyer of Iranian oil, and the West may increase pressure on China to further restrict trade with the Islamic Republic. The reinstated UN sanctions could potentially limit Iran's economic activities, but the country's existing isolation due to US sanctions may mitigate some of the impact.
The situation remains complex and uncertain, with potential implications for regional and global security. As the situation unfolds, it is crucial for all parties involved to prioritise diplomacy and dialogue to find a peaceful and lasting solution.
